June 11 2022
Saturday Morning Report
At first look, the climate in the present day could not look nice. This is what now we have been discussing for some time. This is the validation of my ‘rain likely’, and in addition ‘morning rain’.
The questions now shifts to timing and might we get dry breaks to your plans this afternoon. There are additionally these in Ocean City for the Thunderbirds Air Show. I take a look at that too.
There are fairly a number of instruments I take advantage of to make my forecast, past the fashions I present and don’t present in these studies. But what I’ve on show is one of the best performing mannequin I’ve recognized, but it’s nonetheless not good. So, we nonetheless want to make use of this with a grain of salt.
Morning Set Up
Surface Weather
Here is our rain maker, which is lacking an organized Low Pressure. That is why it’s anticipated to interrupt up throughout the mountains… however the ambiance will stay unsettled.
Doppler Radar at 7 AM
I made this snapshot to check with the forecast beneath. Rain had already reached metro Baltimore and the central Chesapeake Bay. There are some heavier bands within the mountains. This will present us with extra rain by mid day…
Radar Simulation at 7 AM
This NAM 3Km Model has been one of the best performer, and but was nonetheless fallacious. The vanguard of rain seemed to be about 1 hour late.
Snapshots:
2 PM – This reveals the tip of the rain passing by and to the east of Baltimore right now… But it my be sooner than proven right here. I’m suggesting about 1 hour earlier…
Ocean City: The Air Show ceremonies start at 11:30 AM with flights by 3:30 PM. At this time, it’s wanting OK.
8 PM – Scattered showers and thunderstorms are doable. The areas listed below are a suggestion and never good. The suggestion can also be extra probably close to and south of the Bay Bridge/Rt 50.
Radar Recap: Last 2 Hours (will replace)
Showing Last 2 Radar map knowledge
Temperature Forecast
Afternoon
CLIMATE DATA
TODAY June eleventh
Normal Low in Baltimore: 61ºF
Record 40ºF in 1972
Normal High in Baltimore: 82ºF
Record 99ºF 1911
Sunday Simulation: Sat 6 AM to Sun 10 PM
NAM 3 Km Model
This reveals some morning showers…
Mainly rain and storms develop northern half of our area near midday…
Then vast spreads thunderstorms into the afternoon and night.
*Paul McCartney Concert at Camden Yards: There could also be some showers… Can’t rule them out, however not a washout.
Sunday Temperatures
Morning
Afternoon
How heat will rely on how a lot solar can escape earlier than the rain develops.
It might be noticeable cooler below the rainier northern half…
Book Your Kayak or Paddle Boat Adventure On The North Chesapeake Bay
Monday Morning to Wednesday Evening
ECWMF:
A essential cluster of storms which will flip extreme might be wanted to observe for Tuesday.
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7 Day Forecast
The subsequent focus might be on Tuesday for a bigger advanced of storms..
Summer warmth returns by the tip of subsequent week.
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Forecast From Colorado State University
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
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*Disclaimer on account of frequent questions:
I’m conscious there are some spelling and grammar typos. I’ve made a number of public statements over the years, however in case you are new right here you’ll have missed it:
I’ve dyslexia, and discovered at my second 12 months at Cornell. I didn’t cease me from getting my meteorology diploma, and being first to get the AMS CBM within the Baltimore/Washington area.
I do miss my errors in my very own proofreading. The autocorrect spell verify on my pc generally does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and data are correct. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There isn’t any editor that may verify my work after I want it and have it able to ship out in a newsworthy timeline.
I settle for this and maybe proves what you learn is actually from me…
It’s a part of my allure.
